Sometimes, when we solve a problem, without realizing it we create another problem. Second-order thinking will help identify the second problem and its effects before it happens. Anticipating this problem before it happens will allow us to take appropriate preventive measures to prevent it from happening later. Consider this example:
America wants to help regime change in another country, has provided funds and weapons to a group of “small rebels”. And it turned out that the small rebels became more powerful and then went to war with America who had been a sponsor for several decades.
The content of this article is what I learned from Shane Parrish at
The Farnam Street blog Experience is what Latest Mailing Database you got when you didn’t get what you wanted.” — Howard Marks The ability to think across problems to the second, third and so on (simply put, second-order thinking) — is a very powerful ability that allows smart people to use that advantage all the time.
Second Order Thinking Example Memahami Second-Order Thinking In his book, The Most Important Thing , Howard Marks explains the concept of second-order thinking, namely: First-level thinking is simple and superficial, and almost anyone can do it.
All first-order thinkers need an opinion about the future such as
If the reputation of the company is favorable, it means Buy Lead that the stock will go up.” On the other hand, second-order thinking is deep, complex and tortuous. People who think using second-order thinking will often consider many factors in making a decision.
For example: What are key variables and how are they related? Where are the advantages & strengths? If I take this decision, what will happen next? People who use first-order thinking often tend to see things as simple, easy and defensible.
They fail to realize that they are dealing with a complex system. They are unable to think beyond the second layer and subsequent layers. More importantly, they are generally unaware of the need to think in terms of the second step.